Everybody knows how energy will be generated in the future, or do they?
At an event a few weeks ago, a number of speakers prefaced their comments with statements like “everybody knows the future will be based on distributed generation – primarily with small scale renewables and storage to provide reliability”. While there is currently a trend towards increased use of wind and solar and batteries are increasing their footprint as viable short-term storage (current batteries mostly provide 4 hours of energy and some provide 8 hours), pronouncing this as the definitive path for the future is premature.
It is hard to understand why so many people seem to believe that securing energy from a traditional large electricity grid is the way of the past and that generating your own electricity, perhaps together with your neighbours in a microgrid, is by far the better way.
After all, in most aspects of our modern lives, we are becoming more and more networked and interdependent with others. We have no problem securing our internet from large telecoms and we love using large social media sites such as Facebook and Instagram to share our most private thoughts with our global network. We are comfortable being totally dependent upon large companies for so many aspects of our daily lives. We read books and listen to music on our various devices where we depend upon the company being in business as we no longer take physical delivery of content. I spent thousands of dollars on Sonos speakers that provide fantastic sound, but if Sonos disappears tomorrow they will no longer function since they need the Sonos app and its business associations with a range of music providers to keep working. Our NEST thermostats require the app to function at their best and as we move to the “smart” home, all of these devices are operated with apps that require the company supporting them to be in existence for the long-term while we naively assume that because they are so large that Amazon, Facebook and Google will always be there and can never go bankrupt.
Yet somehow, when we have accepted being so dependent upon companies that are larger than some nations for most of what we consider important in our lives, for a basic commodity like electricity, which is essential to enable all of these other services we both need and desire, we conclude that generating it ourselves on our roofs is the best way forward. We have this romantic fantasy that we can live off-grid with a combination of solar power and battery backup. Of course, with a bit of thought we realize that it would be a crisis if it rains for a week and we can’t charge our iPhones, so we accept that we cannot go it completely alone. The conclusion being that maybe we need to collaborate with our neighbours and build a small system (or microgrid) to achieve the reliability that we need to power our lives. The question then becomes how big a system do we need?
Electricity generation and distribution is a complex system. It is already distributed in a sense because a traditional grid requires a number of generating stations in different locations connected by a system of wires to provide customers with cost effective and reliable electricity. How big a system do we need to maintain reliability? Well, after the big black out in North America in 2003, it was decided by US regulators that increased inter-connectivity would be required and all utilities would have to adhere to stringent reliability standards to maintain this interconnection so that one bad actor cannot bring everybody down. So, in a sense we are all connected. The same in Europe where most countries’ grids are interconnected to provide a robust reliable system.
Since it is likely that distributed generators will have to be connected to a microgrid and that microgrids will have to be interconnected to maintain robustness and reliability, then aren’t we just building a new type of large system similar to what we have now? I guess it is the larger centralized generating stations that people dislike as they believe that smaller renewable generation with each of us being generators is the way forward.
But is it? It may be nice for middle class and wealthy environmentalists to dream about a simple life in which they generate their own electricity on their roof, grow much of what they eat in their own garden and buy organic and GMO-free products to meet the rest of their dietary needs; but does this really reflect the reality of society as it is developing today? The world is urbanizing quickly with most people not living in single family homes in the suburbs, but in high density buildings in cities. Is it realistic to generate our own electricity on the roof of a 200 unit apartment building where our own unit may be only 600 square feet? Should we grow our own food on our concrete balconies? Should we drive our electric car to work and clog the roads because we can charge it overnight when demand is low and avoid the subway because it uses on peak electricity when demand is high?
As the world moves to higher density living, it seems unlikely that we can meet our energy needs with lower density sources of supply. As stated by Michael Shellenberger, “Humankind has never transitioned to energy sources that are more costly, less reliable, and have a larger environmental footprint than the incumbent — and yet that’s precisely what adding large amounts of solar and wind to the grid requires. “ …. “In other words, going from energy-dense fuels to solar and wind requires the rematerialization of energy in the form of more land, materials, mining, storage, and waste.”
While idealistic environmentalists can live in their big homes in the suburbs and pretend they are living in an isolated cabin in the woods, the rest of us need to power our lives with reliable economic and low carbon electricity. This means high density generation for high density living, and there is no better high-density fuel source than uranium.
One thing we know for sure is that predicting the future is perilous at best. We can be certain that we are more likely wrong than right when gazing into our crystal balls. The next time someone tells you that “everybody knows…” remember that this a way to avoid actually providing supporting evidence for their view of the future. What we do know is that the future is ours to shape; that reliable and abundant low carbon energy is required to power it, and that nuclear power has the density to meet these needs economically.
4 Comments
Joseph Talnagi · June 2, 2018 at 7:03 am
In these discussions and debates I have always wondered why so many people are seemingly down on the current grid distribution system we have today. For those who understand it to some degree of depth (and those are relatively few), it is nothing short of miraculous. With the flip of a switch, I can do things in my home that only a century ago in this country would either have been impossible, or required an expenditure of time and back-breaking labor. I can do this utilizing energy generated perhaps tens or hundreds of miles away, transported to my home cleanly and reliably and at very reasonable cost. I can live comfortably in a climate whose outside temperature varies from below zero in winter to 90 or close to 100 degrees in summer. I can travel freely and comfortably at any time I choose. Yes, I have a monthly bill to pay (in part) for having these things. But compared to the cost increases over the years of other goods and services, the cost of electrical service has actually been quite constant.
Given all this, I don’t understand why people would think that such a thing is undesirable or lacking in some way. Why would we risk it, and our time and treasure, in pursuit of something that doesn’t exist, that is perhaps appealing based on some perceived romantic notion of a “better life”, when what we have is in fact that very thing? Why not keep what we have and spend our time and money solving other real, tangible problems that we face?
There is an old saying in the Navy (and elsewhere): “If it ain’t broke, don’t fix it.” The wisdom of this is undeniable.
Steve Kidd · June 3, 2018 at 4:26 pm
Beautifully written article Milt – definitely the best I’ve read from you! Certaibly anybody relying on their solar panel or wind turbine in England over the past week would have been struggling. Hot (for us) but no wind and little sun. Renewables here are purely expensive and unreliable fuel-saving technologies for gas power.
Meredith Angwin · June 6, 2018 at 9:14 pm
The fastest growing section of the grocery store is “prepared food.” Take it home and microwave it, or take it right out of the “hot case” and bring it home and eat it.
When I was a young woman, pretty much all young women could sew a hem and most could replace a zipper, and many were accomplished seamstresses. I didn’t sew my own clothes, but several of my friends made their own simple skirts and dresses. There were dress patterns for sale in so many stores. Nowadays, such sewing skills are not nearly as universal.
I see a lot of riding lawnmowers nowadays, though it was pretty much push mowers back in the day.
So how come people expect that the same people who buy ready-made food and clothes, and fill their riding lawnmowers with gasoline—these same people are considered to be eager to take up builidng and maintaining their own electric supply at home?
Great article. Thank you for writing it.
Joseph Talnagi · June 8, 2018 at 11:04 am
I can’t resist relating this anecdote about the “off-grid” lifestyle as applied to food production. Quite a few years ago in the neighborhood I was living at the time my next door neighbor proclaimed he had had it with paying “high prices” at the supermarket for vegetables, he was going to grow everything he needed in his home garden. His wife and kids were all excited and up for the challenge. They had a corner lot so they had a fair amount of land.
So the dad goes out and after a few days of backbreaking labor had spaded and tilled (by hand) about half the yard for the family garden. Well, that was the first source of grumbling. The kids didn’t have enough space for baseball, or even wiffle ball. But, well, eventually they got over it.
The next bit of grumbling started when the other family members had to go out every day and weed the garden. Rain or shine, hot or cool, they were out there. Why didn’t you tell us about that, Dad? Things were not quite as romantic-looking now that there was (hard) work involved.
Then comes harvest and there was a veritable cornucopia of delicious vegetables hanging from the vines and plants. So good that the rabbits and groundhogs and birds found them irresistible. So Dad has to put up garden fence and covers. More work that was not expected.
Then the overabundance of produce was found not to last beyond a week or so once plucked from the vine. So Mom now has to learn how to can and preserve the food, something she had no idea of how to do and had never thought about.
Anyway, the next year comes around and the garden plot had gone to grass. The neighbor Dad was out on his riding mower keeping it trimmed, while Mom went back to the local supermarket for groceries. The moral of the story: most people have no idea of the work involved in living a “simpler” lifestyle. There was a reason our forebearers did what they could to invent labor-saving machines and systems to free themselves of the drudgery of what it took to “live off grid”. If you want to try it, fine. But as a matter of public policy, better to keep it as a private, individual choice and not force it on others who would rather use and be thankful for the advances in lifestyle those before us have bequeathed to us.
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