Has the future really changed or is this a momentary blip?

carbon emissions in Germany will go up as renewables displace nuclear and more fossil generation is built.   In fact this is one of the biggest issues in a nuclear phase out.  Efforts to reduce carbon may be valiant but it’s a losing proposition when first there is a large non carbon emitting nuclear component to replace instead of replacing fossil fuels.

Other than Germany only Switzerland has taken a very negative view, also committing to a nuclear phase out at the end of life for the current fleet, and dropping plans for new build.  And of course in Japan, there is much discussion on how to move forward with their program as they continue to deal with the aftermath of this ongoing event.  However most other countries including the US, Canada and the UK have reaffirmed their commitment to nuclear power as have China and many other Asian nations.

Howeveer, the conclusion of this potential scenario is clear.  According to the IEA, there will be higher CO2 emissions, higher energy prices and less overall energy security.  But we will have to wait until the 2012 WEO to see a more detailed analysis of nuclear. This is probably a good idea since we will have more knowledge of the impact of Fukushima by then.

So while we all wrestle in the aftermath of the events of March 11, there is an important healthy discussion starting.  One that really takes a hard look at how we generate electricity and the role of nuclear.  Let’s hope that it is a rational discussion and that we can then demonstrate clearly the role that nuclear power is to play to meet our energy needs going forward.